What Gridlock and Polarization Mean for American Democracy
WHEN: Friday, May 6, 2016 9:30 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. ET
WHERE: Bipartisan Policy Center, 1225 Eye St. NW, Suite 1000, Washington, DC, 20005
Partisan polarization has deep roots in and a large impact on our political system. As polarization has worsened, Congress and the administration have been less willing and able to confront some of the largest public policy questions facing the country. Is the status quo sustainable?
Are you taking CMI, PAAI, or EPAAI for credit? Apply for scholarships!
CMI and PAAI Benefactor Award Scholarship applications are due April 15. EPAAI Kraus
Award Scholarship applications are due March 28.
Questions? Please contact the CCPS office
Another Hitler? How world leaders see Donald Trump
The Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies (CCPS) and the National Capital-Area Political Science Association (NCAPSA) invite you to this lunchtime panel:
Obama and Executive Power: Has the President Exceeded His Bounds?
Spiritual Life Center Lounge
Fisher: Scholar in Residence at The Constitution Project
Anne Warshaw: Professor of Political Science at Gettysburg College
Crouch: Assistant Professor at American University
by Professor James A. Thurber, Director, Center for Congressional and
Presidential Studies and Distinguished University Professor
RSVP to email@example.com or 202-885-3491
will be served
Prof. James A. Thurber on C-SPAN’s Washington Journal
Prof. Thurber is scheduled to appear on Sunday, March 6.
Listen To Prof. James A. Thurber on The Diane Rehm Show
Senate Republican leaders say they won’t hold hearings for a Supreme Court justice nominee. This makes an Obama appointment before the end of his presidency highly unlikely. What an eight-member Supreme Court could mean for key cases to be decided this year.
Jeffrey Rosen president and CEO, The National Constitution Center; author of the forthcoming book, "Louis D. Brandeis: American Prophet" (June 2016)
James Thurber professor and director, Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University; author of "Obama in Office: The First Two Years"; co-editor with Antoine Yoshinaka of "American Gridlock: The Sources, Character and Impact of Political Polarization"
Prof. James A. Thurber to testify before the Senate Budget Committee
Senator Mike Enzi (R-WY), Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, will hold a hearing Wednesday, February 3, 2016 at 10:00am focused on spending on unauthorized and expired programs.
Testifying will be Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Keith Hall, Jessica Tollestrup, Specialist with the Congressional Research Service (CRS), Dr. Paul Posner, Director of George Mason University’s Center on the Public Service, and Dr. James Thurber, Director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies at American University.
Latinos represent the fastest growing population in the United States, increasing 43% between 2000 and 2010, and they are the leading edge of a demographic change transforming the U.S. into a "majority minority" country. As of 2012, 17% of the U.S. population, or 53 million people, identified as Latino. Their influence upon the direction of national politics, culture, economic trends, and a broad range of other issues, will only increase.
Recognizing the dynamic role of Latinos in U.S. public life, American University's Annual Latino Public Affairs Forum (ALPAF) seeks to convene academics, community advocates, policy experts, journalists, students, and other stakeholders, to address key questions and topics of concern for Latinos. Each year the Forum will focus on a significant public policy domain that is both impacted by and important to Latino communities in the U.S. ALPAF is also intended to better connect the findings of academic research with the efforts of different stakeholders and important policy and political debates around these topics.
CLALS and the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies will jointly sponsor the second Annual Latino Public Affairs Forum, to take place on Monday, February 29, 2016, from 1 p.m. to 5 p.m. in the SIS Abramson Family Founders Room. This forum will consider the impact of the Latino vote on the current presidential election cycle.
Listen to panelists James A. Thurber, Andrew Rudalevige; Thomas Brackett Reed Professor of Government, Bowdoin College, and Glenn Cummings, USM's President (Glenn served in President Obama's Education Dept as a Deputy Secretary. He was also a former Speaker of the Maine House) discuss Obama’s legacy on Maine public radio’s “Maine Calling”
Ghazal P. Nadi and Katie Vinopal are the recipients of the 2016 Gill Family Foundation Scholarship
Ghazal P. Nadi is a doctoral candidate in Political Science at American University’s School of Public Affairs. Her research interests include democratization, authoritarian regime durability and quantitative methodology. Her Dissertation looks at institutional foundations of regime stability and fiscal transparency in hybrid regimes with a focus on Middle East and North Africa.
Ghazal’s dissertation is titled: Transparent They Endure: Institutional Determinants of Fiscal Transparency in Hybrid Regimes.
Our normative assumption is that only democracies are transparent, however, an examination of fiscal transparency in hybrid regimes -which are distinguished from outright authoritarians because they combine both democratic and autocratic characteristics- demonstrates that hybrid regimes produce fairly open budgets, and sometimes even outperform democracies. Using an original index of regime typology and cross-national time-series statistical analysis, I show that among hybrid regimes competitive authoritarians with higher dependence on assistance from International Financial Institutions are fiscally more transparent compared to hegemonic electoral authoritarians. Due to their institutional capabilities competitive authoritarians are better able to implement budget transparency conditionality attached to international loans and assistance packages. The more fiscal information is released by the government, the more it needs to demonstrate efficient use of public resources because the failure to do so increases the risk of losing power in electoral cycles which are fiercely contested in competitive authoritarian regimes. These results imply that by fostering and sponsoring budget transparency, international donors can build the necessary and often lacking structures for government accountability and good governance in hybrid regimes
Katie Vinopal is a PhD candidate in the Department of Public Administration and Policy. Her research interests include education, health, and safety net policies and administration, especially as they relate to social inequality. After receiving her BS in Mathematics from Xavier University in Cincinnati, Ohio, she worked at the Urban Institute for more than two years. There she conducted research on issues, policies, and systems impacting low-income individuals and families. Katie also worked at the Food Research and Action Center, where she sought to better understand and improve the quality of public nutrition programs through outreach, technical assistance, and research. Katie has been honored with the 2015 NASPAA Staats Emerging Scholar Award, the Neil and Ann Kerwin Doctoral Fellowship, and the Charles H. Levine Doctoral Student Research Award. She has taught Administrative Politics as well as the Math and Economics Boot Camp for incoming MPP students.
Dissertation Description: Research across the social sciences has long sought to better understand how various inputs—from parents, schools, neighborhoods, policies, programs, and others—are determined and combined to produce child outcomes. One such input, parental time and involvement, has been the object of considerable empirical attention because of its importance for the cognitive and social development of children. The proposed dissertation seeks to better understand three new aspects of parental time and involvement. Essay one takes an institutional approach to investigate whether racial representation among teachers affects a parent’s decision to become involved at his or her child’s school. Essay two focuses on the effectiveness of state-level policies designed to protect parents’ rights to take time off from work to attend children’s school meetings or events. Finally, essay three builds on existing research that estimates differences by socioeconomic status in the amount of time parents spend with their children by investigating two new dimensions of parent-child time: shared time when both parents are present, and individual time when no siblings are present.
Professor James Thurber Discusses the Republican Debate on the Diane Rehm Show
Hear Professor Thurber; Susan Page, Washington bureau chief of USA Today; and David Folkenflik, media correspondent at NPR and author of "Murdoch's World: The Last of the Old Media Empires", discuss the latest GOP Debate and the role of televised debates in the election process
Partner and co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies and CCPS
Senior Vice President of
Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner and CCPS Research Fellow
Jennifer L. Lawless
Professor of Government and
Director of the Women & Politics Institute
Distinguished Professor of History and author of The Keys to
the White House, (forthcoming early 2016, Rowman & Littlefield)
David N. Wasserman
U.S. House Editor, Cook Political Report
James A. Thurber
Director, Center for Congressional and
and Distinguished University Professor at American University
Apply for the 2015 Gill Family Foundation Scholarship
CCPS and The Gill Family Foundation announces a $6,000 scholarship for dissertation support to a PhD student working on a dissertation in the areas of American Politics, Comparative Politics, Public Administration, or Policy Analysis at American University using quantitative methods.
The Gill Family Foundation was established in 1997 in Houston, Texas, to further the Gill family's interest in support of educational philanthropy. As a statement of philosophy, the Gill family has noted that "Education plays the critical role in providing opportunities for growth, development, success, lasting relationships and satisfaction in life. We are committed to giving back to the system which provided us so much opportunity for success and financial independence."
Recent Article Published by Professors Thurber and Griffin
Profs. Thurber and Griffin co-authored an article titled "Teaching Public Policy Advocacy by Combining Academic Knowledge and Professional Wisdom," in the most recent issue of Interest Groups & Advocacy.
Prof. James A. Thurber, Prof. Gary King, Provost Scott Bass, Prof. Jeff Gill, and Dean Barbara Romzek
Keynote Address by Gary King to Honor Distinguished Alumnus
Professor Gary King, Albert J. Weatherhead III University
Professor, Institute for Quantitative Social Sciences at Harvard University
presented his research on the Chinese censorship apparatus, at a keynote given
on January 30th.
James Thurber talked about lobby reform and ethical issues regarding members of Congress. He spoke about previous efforts to change lobbying practices on Capitol Hill and discussed potential change in the 114th Congress. James Thurber is the author of numerous books on politics and government and served as a legislative assistant to former senators Bill Brock, Adlai Stevenson III, and Hubert Humphrey.
This forum was part of American University's biannual workshop (PAAI) focusing on lobbying strategies used in the nation's capital.
Professor Thurber after giving speech at the OECD Forum on Financing Democracy and Averting Policy Capture in Paris, December 3-4, 2014 with Janos Bertok (on left) head of Public Sector Integrity Division, Public Governance Directorate, OECD.
Professor Thurber at OECD
View Professor James Thurber's recent presentation at the Organization for Economic Co‑operation and Development (OECD), "Political Finance and its Impact on Public Policy and Decision Making Processes…How to Mitigate the Risks of "Capture": The U.S. Case"
CCPS is pleased to announce Gail Baitinger as the recipient of the 2014 Gill Family Foundation Scholarship
Gail's dissertation is titled: If It's Sunday, It's Meet the Men: Examining Gender Differences in Appearances on the Sunday Morning Talk Shows.
Women's under-representation in the news is widely established, but its roots are not yet known. My dissertation is the first to examine systematically whether sexism, journalistic norms, or a combination of the two account for discrepancies in the presence of men and women in the news, the issues discussed by male and female guests, and men and women's ability to set the political agenda. I rely on an original data set of approximately 4,800 Sunday morning show appearances of more than 1,000 individual guests –including elected officials, journalists, administration officials, and activists –as a vehicle by which to assess the roots of women's under-representation in the media and whether gender differences exist in their issue expertise in the news. The quantitative data I collected are from transcripts of all five Sunday morning talk shows and capture every guest who appears on the programs between 2009 and 2011 and the issues they discussed during their appearance. I home in on members of Congress to predict which legislators make the most frequent appearances and the issues they discuss based on characteristics such as sex, seniority, leadership roles, and committee assignments.
Obama Heads to Asia
Prof. Thurber appeared on Sunday's NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt to discuss President Obama's second term and focus on international issues as he begins a three country trip to China, Myanmar, and Australia
Prof. James Thurber appeared on CSPAN's Washington Journal this week. He talked about how President Obama and a Republican-controlled Congress might operate during the 114th Congress. He also discussed how previous administrations have worked with opposition party-controlled congresses.
Charles Brain, President, Capitol Hill Strategies LLC
Assistant to the President and Director of Legislative Affairs - Clinton Administration: 2000-2001
Deputy Assistant - Clinton Administration: 1998-1999
Nicholas Calio, President and CEO of Airlines for America
Assistant to the President for Legislative Affairs - George W. Bush Administration: 2001-2003 and George H.W. Bush Administration: 1991-1993
Dan Meyer, Partner, Duberstein Group
Deputy Assistant to the President - George W. Bush Administration: 2007
Assistant to the President - George W. Bush Administration: 2007-2008
Phil Schiliro, Policy Consultant
Assistant to the President for Legislative Affairs - Obama Administration: 2009-2011; Obama Biden Transition Team: 2008-2009
Moderated by Patrick Griffin
Associate Director for Public Policy Programs and Academic Director of the Public Affairs and Advocacy Institute at the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, Assistant to the President and Director of Legislative Affair - Clinton Administration: 1994-1996
Professor Thurber spoke on the 2014 election to a group of journalists from the Netherlands sponsored by the Netherlands Atlantic Association, Bram Boxhoorn, Director on Friday, October 24 at American University.
Watchdog Groups Praise Work of OCE, Say Similar Senate Ethics Office Needed
Congressional scholars, including Thomas Mann of the Brookings Institution, Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute and American University's James Thurber endorse plea to keep the Office of Congressional Ethics.
Panelists, including Norm Ornstein and James A. Thurber talked about American voters' perceptions of their lawmakers in Washington and how more stringent ethics standards could improve politicians' standing with their constituents.
2014 Public Opinion Quarterly (POQ) Special Issue Conference
New Directions in Presidential Election Research Friday, October 24th, 8:30AM - 5:00PM Barbara Jordan Conference Center
1330 G St. NW
Washington, DC 20005 (one block from Metro Center)
The Baltimore-Washington Chapter of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (DC-AAPOR) is proud to host the 8th annual POQ Special Issue Conference. This year's conference highlights New Directions in Presidential-Election Research and features presentations by the volume's contributing authors. Topics include new methods for estimating election outcomes, the role of racial attitudes and party identification in recent elections, real-time assessments of public opinion, and more. Please join us!
Former CMI Assistant Director Speaks at the White House
Former Campaign Management Institute Assistant Director Andy MacCracken, Executive Director & Cofounder of the National Campus Leadership Council, will address the issue of campus sexual assault at the White House. Watch Live
The Diane Rehm Show- Challenges Facing the Obama Administration
2014 Bryce Harlow Foundation Ethics and Lobbying Essay Winner
The Center congratulates Amanda Shipley, winner of the 2014 Bryce Harlow Foundation Ethics and Lobbying Essay Winner.
Amanda Shipley is the Communications Coordinator at Hellerman Baretz Communications, an award-winning corporate communications agency specializing in thought leadership and branded content development, reputation management, and revenue growth for the world's leading law, consulting, healthcare, and financial services firms.
Born and raised in northern Ohio, Amanda attended Wittenberg University where she graduated summa cum laude with a degree in Political Science and a minor in Economics. She is a member of the Phi Beta Kappa and Pi Sigma Alpha national honors societies, American Political Science Association, and the Legal Marketing Association.
While working from HBC’s Washington office, Amanda completed a Masters in Political Science at American University.
The Republicans’ Latino Problem and How it Can Be Fixed
Join the Center for Latin American and Latino Studies and the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies for a morning conference tackling this timely and important issue, illuminating the challenges the Republican Party faces with trying to obtain the Latino vote and improve their relationship with Latino voters.
Time: March 7 from 10am-1:00pm
Join WPI and CCPS as we discuss partisanship and polarization in the U.S. Congress and whether more women can help solve these problems. Sean Theriault will sign copies of his new book, The Gingrich Senators: The Roots of Partisan Warfare in Congress. Panel discussion with former Congresswomen Barbara Kennelly and Nancy Johnson will follow.
Date and Time:
Thursday, March 27th
Book Signing at 11:15 AM
Lunch and Panel Discussion at 12 PM
SIS Founders Room
4400 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20016
European Public Affairs and Advocacy Institute- Brussels, Belgium June 22-June 27, 2014
Interested in attending this year’s EPAAI? Join us for an information and Q and A session on any of the following dates:
Monday February 24th from 5pm- 5:30
Thursday March 6th from 5pm- 5:30
Tuesday March 18th from 5pm- 5:30
All information sessions will take place in the CCPS office, Ward 109.
CCPS is pleased to announce Andrew Brannegan as the recipient of the 2013 Gill Family Foundation Scholarship.
Andrew’s dissertation is titled: "Understanding Parental Involvement and its Influence on Student Outcomes in the Context of the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001."
The No Child Left Behind Act of 2001 emphasized the need for greater parental participation in the education process by expanding public school choice and by requiring parental involvement in Title I school activities. This research will examine the implications of increasing parental involvement in schools, by analyzing: (1) how each parent’s level of education influences the likelihood of being aware of and participating in public school choice; (2) how different types of parental involvement and school outreach influence student test scores and behavioral outcomes; and (3) how changes in household dynamics influence a parent’s likelihood of participating in school activities. These questions are answered using a variety of quantitative methods and using data from the National Household Education Survey of 2007 and the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Class of 1998-1999.
2013 Hatfield Scholar Award Presented to Professor James A. Thurber
Professor James A. Thurber is the recipient of the 2013 Hatfield Scholar Award. The award is given by Portland State University faculty in recognition of an exceptional scholar whose career best exemplifies the Hatfield commitment to public interest and public service.
The JFK Assassination Anniversary: Public Perceptions And Political Realities- The Diane Rehm Show
Listen to panelists James Thurber, Robert Dallek; presidential historian, Larry Sabato; founder and director, University of Virginia Center for Politics, and Bill Minutaglio; professor of journalism at the University of Texas, Austin discuss the JFK assassination on the eve of the 50th anniversary.
Richard G. Smolka, a professor emeritus at American University and one of the world’s leading experts on elections, voting and the electoral process, died at his home in Mesa, Arizona, on Nov. 5. He was 81.
A native of Cleveland, Ohio, Smolka taught in the School of Public Affairs at American for 31 years before his retirement. He created Election Administration Reports, a bi-weekly newsletter on election law and administration for election officials, in 1971 and served as its editor for more than 40 years. It became an industry standard and developed a worldwide readership among those in the business of running elections.
2013 Bryce Harlow Foundation Ethics and Lobbying Essay Winner
The Center congratulates Lindsey Mears, winner of the 2013 Bryce Harlow Foundation Ethics and Lobbying Essay Winner.
Lindsey Mears is a recent graduate of the MA program in Political Communication at American University. She took part in the Ethics in Lobbying Workshop to enhance her understanding of both the perception and legislation of lobbying activity. Lindsey works at an advocacy nonprofit and hopes to continue working in issue advocacy. Read Lindsey’s award winning paper and past winners.
Campaign Management Institute Assistant Director Andy MacCracken on C-SPAN
Andy MacCracken appeared on C-SPAN’s Washington Journal to discuss his organization’s efforts to engage young voters on a national level about a variety of issues including the national debt, fiscal responsibility, college affordability and youth voter turnout.
Eva-Marie Kiefer joins CCPS as a Scholar in Residence
Ms. Kiefer is a PhD student at the Heidelberg Center for American Studies in Germany. Her dissertation examines the mechanisms explaining Congressional behavior during crisis in conflicts with non-state actors.
Prof.Jeffrey Crouch, author of The Presidential Pardon Power (University Press of Kansas, 2009), was one of two political scientists invited to join a dozen legal scholars and practitioners at St. Thomas School of Law's spring symposium, "Sentence Commutations and the Executive Pardon Power." Crouch presented a paper entitled "The President's Power to Commute: Is It Still Relevant?" The symposium was held on April 20, 2012 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Former Maryland governor Robert Ehrlich delivered the keynote address. Here is a link: http://ir.stthomas.edu/ustlj/symposia.html
Crouch was also invited to speak at Clemson University, where he gave a talk on April 27, 2012 entitled "The Presidential Pardon Power: The Basics." His recently published work includes a chapter, "William Jefferson Clinton," in Chronology of the American Presidency, edited by Matthew Manweller, and a chapter entitled "Redistricting: The Shift Towards South and West Continues" in Campaigns on the Cutting Edge, 2nd Ed., edited by AU's own Richard J. Semiatin.
The Gill Family Foundation Scholarship Committee is pleased to announce its December 2012 winner: Jiaqi Liang.
Jiaqi Liang is a Ph.D. candidate in Department of Public Administration & Policy. Her research interests include administrative politics, policy implementation, program evaluation, environmental policy and politics, performance management, diversity and representation, comparative public administration and policy. Her dissertation theoretically conceptualizes race/ethnicity-based environmental injustice in the framework of social construction of target populations, and empirically examines its impact on the bureaucratic distribution of environmental benefits and burdens by enforcing environmental programs inequitably. Prior to the doctoral program at AU, Liang received a MPA with a concentration in public policy at University of Missouri-Columbia. Her dissertation is titled: Unmasking Covert Injustice: Minorities, Social Constructionism, and Environmental Enforcement in the United States.
Professor James Thurber Discusses Election Outcomes on the Diane Rehm Show
Hear Professor Thurber, Andrew Kohut; director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press and Michelle Bernard; founder and president of the Bernard Center for Women, Politics and Public Policy as they analyze the results.
Presidential Poll: Aging ‘Emptying Nest’ counties look crucial in the Midwest, Give Edge to Obama
As the 2012 presidential race heads for the home stretch, a new poll analysis by American University and Patchwork Nation suggests that a popular/electoral vote split is a very real possibility – with key aging Midwestern counties giving the president an edge in the race to 270 electoral votes. The findings come from an examination of the latest Pew Research Center presidential poll using the Patchwork Nation demographic/geographic breakdown of U.S. counties
The Romney Post-Debate Bounce – What’s clear and what’s uncertain: A Patchwork Nation Analysis of the latest Pew Research Center Poll
By most every account, Republican nominee Mitt Romney shook up the presidential race last week with a strong showing in the first presidential debate. By early last week, polls from Gallup to Pew seemed to indicate the race had changed.
The breakdown, released here in conjunction with American University, shows a big surge in the exurbs for Romney (counties called Boom Towns) and some growth of support in the big cities (counties called the Industrial Metropolis). President Obama, meanwhile, still appears to hold the lead in the crucial suburban counties (counties called the Monied Burbs) and to hold great strength in the counties that are a heavy with college students (counties called Campus and Careers).
*Please Note: These results are from BEFORE Pew’s Monday 10/8 poll release*
With a month to go until Election Day, a new breakdown of poll numbers show President Barack Obama has built important leads in key communities where he needs to win big in November. Perhaps even more important, Obama has opened up leads in important swing counties and in some counties that usually tend to lean toward the GOP.
The analysis, done by examining Pew Research Center polling data through the Patchwork Nation demographic/geographic breakdown of counties in partnership with American University, suggests a complicated path to victory for Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in the closing weeks of the campaign.
Anita McBride, Executive-in-Residence, has a long and distinguished career in American politics and government. Most recently, she served as Assistant to President George W. Bush and Chief of Staff to First Lady Laura Bush.
Now in its thirtieth year, the Campaign Management Institute has become an internationally recognized dynamic curriculum drawing students from across the globe to learn and practice the art and science of campaigning.