Last week, the world was transfixed by a 24-hour coup led by Russia’s mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin. It ended in a sudden pullback, leaving Russian President Vladimir Putin in power. Nonetheless, the fact that Prigozhin could get as far as he did with the Wagner Group, his private military company, is seen as a deep political blow for Putin.

We turned to Professor of History Eric Lohr to explain the significance of these events and what might happen next. Lohr, the chair of the Department of History, is American University’s Dr. James H. Billington Chair of Russian History and Culture.

The attempted Russian Coup has failed. What does It mean for Putin and the future of Russia?

When asked to predict the Russian future, I usually say that I have no idea, but once something decisive happens, I’ll explain why it was inevitable.

That said, here goes. First, we learned that Putin is far less popular and secure in his position than nearly everyone thought. When Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenary troops occupied the southern military district in Rostov, there was close to no resistance, few expressions of support for Putin, and even some cheers for the Wagner soldiers. Seventy percent approval ratings mean little in a country with tightly controlled media and widespread fear of telling a stranger what one thinks.  

Second, we see clearly now that Putin’s heavy reliance upon a motley crew on the extreme right to support and fight his completely illegitimate war on Ukraine has made him vulnerable. Prigozhin had little agenda other than a desperate bid to protect his profitable mercenary operation from dissolution. That he made such rapid, unimpeded progress must be a frightening prospect for the regime, and perhaps could be an inspiration for others who might consider a real coup attempt from the right. Although it is possible this will push Putin to negotiate, it is also possible that he concludes that the main danger is from the right, and winning the war is the only path to self-preservation.

Third, Russia’s only significant victory this year was won by the Wagner group in Bakhmut. Now that force is being disbanded. Russia is well dug in and may be able to stave off a Ukrainian breakthrough, but it is hard to imagine Russia seeing any more gains in the war so long as weapons continue to flow in from the West.

Finally, this weekend was a kind of Wizard of Oz moment. We got a peek behind the curtain and saw that Putin’s autocracy is far less powerful, united, and popular than many thought. We saw this weekend that continuing to rely on the virulent right carries serious risks to the regime itself. Sadly, Putin has repressed the media and liberals so extensively that, barring a successful mass uprising, the main contest now may well be between Putin's fascist dictatorship and an even more extreme alternative.

About Professor Eric Lohr

Professor Lohr is the author of Russian Citizenship: From Empire to Soviet Union (Harvard University Press, 2012) and Nationalizing the Russian Empire: The Campaign Against Enemy Aliens during World War I (Harvard University Press, 2003). His recent review essay “The Bolshevik Revolution is Over” appeared in the Journal of Modern History. He is currently writing Russian Autocracy: A History and The Brothers Trubetskoi: Liberals between Tsar and Revolution. Lohr received his MA in Russian Studies and PhD in History from Harvard University, where he also served as an assistant professor of history. He is chair of the History Department and James H. Billington Chair of Russian History and Culture at American University.