What:

As you continue your coverage of the 2024 presidential election, we would like to share some insights that American University experts presented at a media briefing on Wednesday, August 16, 2023. If you are seeking expertise for any coverage, please don’t hesitate to get in touch as we are happy to help and connect you to an expert. 

For a link to the entire discussion, please contact aumedia@american.edu. 

Who:

Discussion participants included Amy Dacey, executive director of the Sine Institute for Policy & Politics; David Barker, director of the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies; Gabriel Mathy, associate professor in the Department of Economics at American University; Molly O’Rourke, polling expert and executive-in residence in the School of Communication; Jordan Tama, provost associate professor in the School of International Service. 

These comments have been edited for length and clarity.  

On the GOP debate on Aug. 23 

David Barker said: “Chris Christie is definitely going to attack Trump; that is the lane that he is chosen and should make for some interesting fireworks. I am curious to see whether any of the other candidates choose to respond to Christie by defending Trump. I could envision DeSantis trying to score points again with the base by taking that strategy.” 

Jordan Tama said: “I think the debate is more likely to be consequential for other candidates. For them, it is about the possibility of a viral moment, which could be helpful or harmful. That is what we are going to be looking for from this debate; who gets a moment that shoots them upward or downward?” 

Amy Dacey said: “The conversation will certainly surround Donald Trump. There is already pressure from some of the Republican candidates that the indictments should be talked about on that stage. I am also looking to see what Fox News, Bret Baier, and Martha Maccallum will care about. The questions they bring up, the topics they decide to discuss in this debate will be interesting to me as they think those are the things that are on the minds of people beyond indictment conversations.” 

On Trump’s GOP opponents 

Molly O’Rourke said: “Where this gets really tortured is for the Tim Scott and the Nikki Haleys who are trying to have it both ways: stay in Trump’s good graces in the primary then, if they get momentum and look toward the general, they’re going to need to pick up independent and swing voters and look a bit more-or-less knee-jerk supportive of Trump.” 

Gabriel Mathy said: “To some extent, a lot of candidates are running to be the alternative to Trump, to try and attract fundraising that way. However, there are a lot of different alternatives to Trump on a lot of different issues. So, I think the Republican base has really moved towards supporting a different range of policies.”  

GOP plan for economic issues 

Gabriel Mathy said: “Rather than a focus on specifics, I think there will be mostly attacks on Biden’s economic program; the Republicans don’t have a clear economic policy. They are continuing to do the same playbook of tax cuts. So, I would not expect for the economy to be a focus in upcoming debates.” 

On GOP’s foreign policy plan 

Jordan Tama said: “On foreign policy, there is really a debate between traditional Republicans — who think the U.S. should be a strong voice in the world on behalf of democracy and peace; and should strongly support Ukraine in its war against Russia, should support NATO and other alliances. On the other hand, you have Trump and most of his staunch followers who think the U.S. should pull back from the world, stay out of the war in Ukraine, and pull out of NATO. I think that is the substantive issue where you are most likely to see a real debate within the primary.” 

On swing states Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin 

Amy Dacey said: “These key swing states also have important contested Senate races coming up; so, as these candidates are trying to have a conversation about the state, they also want to represent how that plays out in the national narrative. The fact that these elections are happening at the same time will have a big influence on what resources are going to those states.”  

Molly O’Rourke said: “Those are four very strategic states [Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin], but the electorate in those states are very different. Nevada being an increasingly working-class state; and the Hispanic population in both Nevada and Arizona are becoming more important but are also very different. In Georgia, between 20 and 25 percent of the electorate in the presidential year is Black, which is not necessarily true in Wisconsin. Therefore, I think the parties will need to make specific, targeted investments in those states, because this is not a uniform strategy.” 

David Barker said: “The Democratic Party has sometimes gotten itself in trouble by treating certain constituencies as just needing to be mobilized as opposed to needing to be persuaded; Latino voters and young men of all races and ethnicities are two groups that really fall into that category.”