Early in 2020, experts warned of the devastating toll that COVID-19 would have on African countries. By the close of 2021, however, Africa remained one of the least affected regions in the world, leading commentators to speculate about a so-called “Africa paradox”.

A new article co-authored by SIS Professor Rachel Sullivan Robinson evaluates current research and data to establish the burden of COVID-19 infections and mortality in the African region. Despite claims that African countries were spared from COVID-19 infection, there is now considerable serological evidence confirming that people in African countries ultimately experienced levels of SARS-CoV2 infection comparable to or more than people in other global regions. Additionally, multiple measures demonstrate substantial impacts of COVID-19 on mortality in specific African countries where mortality and/or seroprevalence data are available.

The gaps between recorded cases and seroprevalence are large and increased over the course of the pandemic. Researchers also observe significant gaps between recorded COVID-19 deaths and other measures of mortality, attributable to weak civil and vital registration systems, limited health care resources, and higher mortality at younger ages.

Sullivan Robinson and her co-authors' findings reinforce the need for more equitable global distribution of health care resources and expanded disease and mortality surveillance across the continent.

Rachel Sullivan Robinson (2024), The Missing Millions: Uncovering the Burden of Covid-19 Cases and Deaths in the African Region, Population and Development Review, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12608